The world of college football and the transfer portal has created an intriguing dynamic, especially when examining the impact of player movement on their performance. In this article, we delve into the specific case of former BYU football players and their post-transfer careers, asking the question: does leaving BYU always lead to better opportunities and success?
The Transfer Portal Phenomenon
BYU, like many other college football programs, has had to navigate the transfer portal era, a time-consuming and resource-intensive process. Despite their best efforts, some players still enter the portal, seeking new opportunities or more playing time. Our focus is on understanding the outcomes of these transfers and whether they made the right choice.
Transfer Outcomes: A Mixed Bag
Out of the 81 transfers from BYU since 2020, a significant portion (48%) either moved down to the FCS ranks or didn't find a new college football roster. We'll set these transfers aside for now and concentrate on the remaining 52% who joined other FBS schools.
Stalled Development
A notable 45% of these transfers maintained the same level of production at their new schools. This raises an interesting point: by transferring, these players may have stalled their development. Typically, staying with the same program leads to increased production over time. However, for these players, their output remained stagnant.
Take the case of Gabe Jeudy-Lally, a former starting cornerback. His production at Tennessee in 2023 mirrored his time at BYU and Vanderbilt, suggesting that his development plateaued due to frequent transfers. Similarly, Clark Barrington, a three-year starter, saw his PFF grades dip at Baylor, indicating a potential decline in performance.
Flat Production
Another 17% of transfers experienced a drop in production at their new schools. Harrison Taggart, for instance, saw his playing time and impact halved at Cal compared to BYU. Crew Wakley, who would have been a backup at BYU, played significantly fewer snaps at Purdue.
Improved Performance
There is a smaller group (20%) of transfers who saw their production increase at new schools. Most of these players moved to G6 (Group of Six) schools, finding more playing time and success. Miles Davis, for example, became BYU's third-string running back but transferred to Utah State, where he had career-high carries and yards.
Dallin Holker is an exceptional case, becoming an All-American at Colorado State after leaving BYU. Other players like Jake Eichorn and David Latu also found important roles in the Mountain West Conference.
A smaller subset (7%) transferred to P4 (Power Four) schools and improved their production. Keelan Marion, for instance, had a career-high 746 yards at Miami, a significant increase from his time at BYU. John Henry Daley, a former BYU player, led the country in sacks at his new school before an injury.
Verdict and Reflections
While some former BYU players have found success post-transfer, the data suggests that leaving Provo often leads to a less productive career. Only a small fraction (20%) improved their production, with most of these transfers moving to G6 schools. For those who transferred to P4 schools, the success rate was even lower (7%).
Half of the transfers didn't find another FBS school, and of those who did, a majority (62%) either saw their production drop or remain the same. It's a sobering reality check for some players who might have believed the grass was greener elsewhere.
In my opinion, the transfer portal offers an intriguing lens to examine player development and decision-making. It highlights the importance of stability and continuous growth within a program. While the allure of more playing time or a fresh start is understandable, the data suggests that the benefits of transferring aren't always as clear-cut as they might seem.
What many people don't realize is that the transfer portal can be a double-edged sword, and the decision to transfer should be carefully considered. It's a complex issue with no easy answers, but one thing is certain: the transfer portal has added a new layer of strategy and intrigue to the world of college football.
